[Geactivists] [SustainableTompkins] file under: UnintendedConsequences

[Tony Del Plato]

Touche Phil.
Thanks
Tony

On 7/26/06, Phil Bereano <pbereano at u.washington.edu> wrote:
>
>
> Re:  "Unintended consequences".
>
> I was involved in the early development of the notion and procedures for
> technology assessment, where this concept first was articulated (TA
> developed in conjunction with modern risk analysis, since all impacts of a
> technology--positive as well as negative--can be expressed as probablity
> times magnitude, hopefully considering distributional equity
> aspects).  However, "unintended consequences"  is often used to excuse
> irresponsible actors.   If something is foreseeable (or should be--ie, are
> they doing the necessary risk rersearch??), whether it is intended or not is
> beside the point.  We need always to argue that the intentions in the mind
> of the actor are not of importance to the environment--the flora and fauna
> don't care what the human is thinking, just what s/he is doing.
>
> Phil
>
>
> **********************************************
> Philip L. Bereano
> Professor Emeritus
> Department of Technical Communication
> Box 352195,  Loew Hall
> University of Washington
> Seattle, Wash 98195 USA
>
> ph: (206) 543-9037
> fx: (206) 543-8858
>
> pbereano at u.washington.edu
> **********************************************
>
> On Wed, 26 Jul 2006, Doug Gurian-Sherman wrote:
>
> > This is not surprising (probably not to anyone on this list), and we are
> > seeing the same thing in HT crops for very similar reasons; resistant
> > weeds, but also weed shifts to more tolerant species - silver bullet
> > approaches that ignore agroecology and population genetics are not
> > sustainable.  But there are a couple of things wrong in the Cornell
> > piece.  First, secondary pests ARE, and have been, a problem already,
> > both in the US and India, although maybe not quite to the extent as in
> > China (India may be as big or bigger problem).  The current Bt toxins do
> > not work on these insects, which are mostly phloem feeders (sucking
> > pests like aphids that draw fluid from the vascular tissue of the plant)
> > for two reasons.  One is that the toxins themselves don't work on them,
> > and second, they are usually not expressed well in the phloem.  Solving
> > these problems with Bt may not be feasible (I am not sure if there are
> > Bt toxins that kill this group of insects; but there are dozens of Bts
> > that have not been widely explored, so it may be possible).  I have not
> > seen any in field trials though, so I think it unlikely (it's a little
> > hard to be sure with all of the CBI that USDA allows).
> >
> >
> >
> > Also, use of secondary predators (beneficial insects) may be problematic
> > in conjunction with current chemical insecticide use.  Studies of Bt
> > cotton by several groups in the US SW have shown that even though
> > insecticide use is down there somewhat (for now!), biodiversity,
> > including of beneficial insects, is not higher than for conventional
> > cotton.  That makes it pretty hard to establish beneficial insects
> > (maybe they should just consider using organic!).
> >
> >
> >
> > Doug
> >
> >
> >
> > Doug Gurian-Sherman, Ph.D.
> >
> > Senior Scientist
> >
> > Center for Food Safety
> >
> > 660 Pennsylvania Avenue, Suite 302
> >
> > Washington, D.C. 20003
> >
> > t  202-547-9359
> >
> > f  202-547-9429
> >
> > dgurian-sherman at icta.org
> >
> >
> >
> > ________________________________
> >
> > From: geactivists-bounces at geaction.org
> > [mailto:geactivists-bounces at geaction.org] On Behalf Of Tony Del Plato
> > Sent: Wednesday, July 26, 2006 7:28 AM
> > To: GEAN
> > Subject: [Geactivists] [SustainableTompkins] file under:
> > UnintendedConsequences
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> > From: GayNicholson at aol.com <GayNicholson at aol.com >
> > Date: Jul 26, 2006 12:44 AM
> > Subject: [SustainableTompkins] file under: Unintended Consequences
> > To: sustainabletompkins at lists.mutualaid.org
> >
> > When I was a student of crop physiology at Cornell, we talked often
> > about
> > the genetic treadmill (plant breeders and  pesticide companies always
> > having to
> > stay one step ahead of pest  mutations) and limiting factors (adding
> > more of
> > one nutrient becomes a  waste if another is in short supply and limits
> > growth).
> > Add this  cautionary tale about failing to think at the systems
> > level.....
> >
> > -------- Original Message --------
> > Subject:     Cornell  Chronicle: Profits die for Bt cotton in China
> > Date:     Tue, 25 Jul  2006 14:03:32 -0400
> > From:     Cornell News Service  <cunews at cornell.edu>
> > Reply-To:     cunews at cornell.edu
> > To:  CUNEWS-AG-L at cornell.edu (CUNEWS-AG-L),
> > CUNEWS-SCIENCE-L at cornell.edu
> > (CUNEWS-SCIENCE-L)
> >
> >
> > News from  Chronicle Online
> >
> > Seven-year glitch: Cornell warns that Chinese GM cotton  farmers are
> > losing money due to 'secondary'  pests
> > http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/July06/Bt.cotton.China.ssl.html
> >
> > July  25, 2006
> >
> > Susan Lang
> > SSL4 at cornell.edu
> >
> > Although Chinese cotton  growers were among the first farmers
> > worldwide to plant genetically modified  (GM) cotton to resist
> > bollworms, the substantial profits they have reaped  for several years
> > by saving on pesticides have now been eroded.
> >
> > The  reason, as reported by Cornell University researchers at the
> > American  Agricultural Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting in
> > Long Beach,  Calif., July 25, is that other pests are now attacking
> > the GM  cotton.
> >
> > The GM crop is known as Bt cotton, shorthand for the Bacillus
> > thuringiensis gene inserted into the seeds to produce toxins. But
> > these  toxins are lethal only to leaf-eating bollworms. After seven
> > years,  populations of other insects -- such as mirids -- have
> > increased so much  that farmers are now having to spray their crops up
> > to 20 times a growing  season to control them, according to the study
> > of 481 Chinese farmers in  five major cotton-producing provinces.
> >
> > "These results should send a very  strong signal to researchers and
> > governments that they need to come up with  remedial actions for the
> > Bt-cotton farmers. Otherwise, these farmers will  stop using Bt
> > cotton, and that would be very unfortunate," said Per
> > Pinstrup-Andersen, the H.E. Babcock Professor of Food, Nutrition and
> > Public Policy at Cornell, and the 2001 Food Prize laureate. Bt
> > cotton,  he said, can help reduce poverty and undernourishment
> > problems in developing  countries if properly used.
> >
> > The study -- the first to look at the longer  term economic impact of
> > Bt cotton -- found that by year three, farmers in  the survey who had
> > planted Bt cotton cut pesticide use by more than 70  percent and had
> > earnings 36 percent higher than farmers planting  conventional cotton.
> > By 2004, however, they had to spray just as much as  conventional
> > farmers, which resulted in a net average income of 8 percent  less
> > than conventional cotton farmers because Bt seed is triple the cost
> > of conventional seed.
> >
> > In addition to Pinstrup-Andersen, the study was  conducted by Shenghui
> > Wang, Cornell Ph.D. '06 and now an economist at the  World Bank, and
> > Cornell professor David R. Just. They stress that secondary  pest
> > problems could become a major threat in countries where Bt cotton has
> > been widely planted.
> >
> > "Because of its touted efficiency, four major  cotton-growing
> > countries were quick to adopt Bt cotton: the U.S., China,  India and
> > Argentina," said Wang. Bt cotton accounts for 35 percent of cotton
> > production worldwide. In China, more than 5 million farmers have
> > planted  Bt cotton; it is also widely planted in Mexico and South
> > Africa.
> >
> > When  U.S. farmers plant Bt crops, they, unlike farmers in China, are
> > required by  contracts with seed producers to plant a refuge, a field
> > of non-Bt crops, to  maintain a bollworm population nearby to help
> > prevent the pest from  developing resistance to the Bt cotton. The
> > pesticides used in these refuge  fields help control secondary pest
> > populations on the nearby Bt cotton  fields. Researchers do not yet
> > know if a secondary pest problem will emerge  in the United States and
> > other countries, Pinstrup-Andersen  said.
> >
> > "The problem in China is not due to the bollworm developing
> > resistance to Bt cotton -- as some researchers have feared -- but is
> > due  to secondary pests that are not targeted by the Bt cotton and
> > which  previously have been controlled by the broad-spectrum
> > pesticides used to  control bollworms," added Pinstrup-Andersen, who
> > also is serving as  president of AAEA for 2007.
> >
> > Wang and her co-authors conclude, "Research  is urgently needed to
> > develop and test solutions."
> >
> > These include  introducing natural predators to kill the secondary
> > pests, developing Bt  cotton that resists the secondary pests or
> > enforcing the planting of refuge  areas where broad-spectrum
> > pesticides are used.
> >
> > This study was  jointly conducted by the Center for Chinese
> > Agricultural Policy, Chinese  Academy of Science and Cornell.
> >
> > --
> >
> >
> > Chronicle Online
> > 312  College Ave.
> > Ithaca, NY  14850
> > 607.255.4206
> > cunews at cornell.edu
> > http://www.news.cornell.edu
> >
> > ***************************************
> > Gay Nicholson, Ph.D .
> >
> > Sustainable Tompkins
> > Program Coordinator
> > _www.sustainabletompkins.org_ (http://www.sustainabletompkins.org/)
> >
> > 607-533-7312 (home office)
> > 607-279-6618 (cell)
> >
> > 1  Maple Avenue
> > Lansing, NY 14882
> > gaynicholson at aol.com
> >
> > Southern Tier  Energy$mart Communities
> > Regional Coordinator
> > Cornell Cooperative Extension  of Tompkins County
> > 615 Willow Ave., Ithaca, NY  14850
> > agn1 at cornell.edu
> >
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> >
> >
> > --
> > "Hope is not optimism, which expects things to turn out well, but
> > something rooted in the conviction that there is good worth working
> > for."
> > Seamus Heaney
> >
> >
>
>
>
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-- 
"Hope is not optimism, which expects things to turn out well, but something
rooted in the conviction that there is good worth working for."
Seamus Heaney