[SustainableTompkins] Avoiding the GHG tipping point (bosak at ibiblio.org)

[bosak at ibiblio.org]

Thanks, John, that's probably the best I'll be able to get right now.

Terry Moore and Dave Panofsky of TCLocal have pointed me to the
"mitigation wedge" analysis of S. Pacala and R. Socolow, described
a couple of years ago in Science (Vol. 305, pp. 968-972; 13 August
2004) and reprised more recently (and I suspect more accessibly)
in the September 2006 issue of Scientific American, which I wish
I'd been quick enough to pick up at the newsstand but is probably
gone now.  Looks to be worth grabbing if you run across a copy.

Jon

> Jon,
> In such a complex and changing area (cloud cover changes, algae blooms,
> etc), I think you are best to use a pretty broad range- I certainly
> wouldn't buy a precise number.  Using what has already been submitted in
> these notes, I think you can pull out something like "if we stop at
> current levels of human contribution to greenhouse gases, then we will
> have to reduce our consumption of fossil fuels by 40-80% by 2050"   40%
> is still a huge number and 80% may be correct and indicates the
> difficulty of the challenge.
>
> I'll be on the look out for more references. We learn more every day.
>
> John
>
>
> Thanks.  This is interesting, but still doesn't give me the sound bite
> I'm looking for: "To avert irreversible climate change, we will have to
> reduce our consumption of fossil fuels by X percent."  I need X.
>
> Jon
>
>>
>
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