[SustainableTompkins] Monbiot on Bali: NO carbon use

[Margaret McCasland]

link, followed by first part of article.

http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2007/12/04/what-is-progress/


What Is Progress?
The numbers show that this should be the real question at the Bali talks.

By George Monbiot. Published in the Guardian 4th December 2007

	When you warn people about the dangers of 
climate change, they call you a saint. When you 
explain what needs to be done to stop it, they 
call you a communist. Let me show you why.
	There is now a broad scientific consensus 
that we need to prevent temperatures from rising 
by more than 2°C above their pre-industrial 
level. Beyond that point, the Greenland ice sheet 
could go into irreversible meltdown, some 
ecosystems collapse, billions suffer from water 
stress, droughts could start to threaten global 
food supplies(1,2).
	The government proposes to cut the UK's 
carbon emissions by 60% by 2050. This target is 
based on a report published in 2000(3). That 
report was based on an assessment published in 
1995, which drew on scientific papers published a 
few years earlier. The UK's policy, in other 
words, is based on papers some 15 years old. Our 
target, which is one of the toughest on earth, 
bears no relation to current science.
	Over the past fortnight, both Gordon 
Brown and his adviser Sir Nicholas Stern have 
proposed raising the cut to 80%(4,5). Where did 
this figure come from? The last G8 summit adopted 
the aim of a global cut of 50% by 2050, which 
means that 80% would be roughly the UK's fair 
share. But the G8's target isn't based on current 
science either.
	In the new summary published by the 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 
you will find a table which links different cuts 
to likely temperatures(6). To prevent global 
warming from eventually exceeding 2°, it 
suggests, by 2050 the world needs to cut its 
emissions to roughly 15% of the volume in 2000.
	I looked up the global figures for carbon 
dioxide production in 2000(7) and divided it by 
the current population(8). This gives a baseline 
figure of 3.58 tonnes of CO2 per person. An 85% 
cut means that (if the population remains 
constant) the global output per head should be 
reduced to 0.537t by 2050. The UK currently 
produces 9.6 tonnes per head and the US 
23.6t(9,10). Reducing these figures to 0.537t 
means a 94.4% cut in the UK and a 97.7% cut in 
the US. But the world population will rise in the 
same period. If we assume a population of 9bn in 
2050(11), the cuts rise to 95.9% in the UK and 
98.3% in the US.
[and so on, followed by references]