[SustainableTompkins] EU: Climate Change Will Transform the Face of the Continent

[GayNicholson at aol.com]

_Go to Original_ 
(http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article2140265.ece)   
EU: Climate Change Will Transform the Face of the  Continent 
By Michael McCarthy and Stephen Castle  
The Independent UK  
Wednesday 10 January 2007  
Europe, the richest and most fertile continent and  the model for the modern 
world, will be devastated by climate change, the  European Union predicts 
today.  
The ecosystems that have underpinned all European  societies from Ancient 
Greece and Rome to present-day Britain and France, and  which helped European 
civilisation gain global pre-eminence, will be disabled by  remorselessly rising 
temperatures, EU scientists forecast in a remarkable report  which is as 
ominous as it is detailed.  
Much of the continent's age-old fertility, which gave  the world the vine and 
the olive and now produces mountains of grain and dairy  products, will not 
survive the climate change forecast for the coming century,  the scientists 
say, and its wildlife will be devastated.  
Europe's modern lifestyles, from summer package tours  to winter skiing 
trips, will go the same way, they say, as the Mediterranean  becomes too hot for 
holidays and snow and ice disappear from mountain ranges  such as the Alps - 
with enormous economic consequences. The social consequences  will also be felt 
as heat-related deaths rise and extreme weather events, such  as storms and 
floods, become more violent.  
The report, stark and uncompromising, marks a step  change in Europe's own 
role in pushing for international action to combat  climate change, as it will 
be used in a bid to commit the EU to ambitious new  targets for cutting emis
sions of greenhouse gases.  
The European Commission wants to hold back the rise  in global temperatures 
to 2C above the pre-industrial level (at present, the  level is 0.6C). To do 
that, it wants member states to commit to cutting back  emissions of carbon 
dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, to 30 per cent below  1990 levels by 2020, 
as long as other developed countries agree to do the same.  
Failing that, the EU would observe a unilateral  target of a 20 per cent cut. 
 
The Commission president, José Manuel Barroso, gave  US President George Bush 
a preview of the new policy during a visit to the White  House this week.  
The force of today's report lies in its setting out  of the scale of the 
continent-wide threat to Europe's "ecosystem services".  
That is a relatively new but powerful concept, which  recognises essential 
elements of civilised life - such as food, water, wood and  fuel - which may 
generally be taken for granted, are all ultimately dependent on  the proper 
functioning of ecosystems in the natural world. Historians have  recognised that 
Europe was particularly lucky in this respect from the start,  compared to 
Africa or pre-Columbian America - and this was a major reason for  Europe's rise to 
global pre-eminence.  
"Climate change will alter the supply of European  ecosystem services over 
the next century," the report says. "While it will  result in enhancement of 
some ecosystem services, a large portion will be  adversely impacted because of 
drought, reduced soil fertility, fire, and other  climate change-driven 
factors.  
"Europe can expect a decline in arable land, a  decline in Mediterranean 
forest areas, a decline in the terrestrial carbon sink  and soil fertility, and an 
increase in the number of basins with water scarcity.  It will increase the 
loss of biodiversity."  
The report predicts there will be some European  "winners" from climate 
change, at least initially. In the north of the  continent, agricultural yields 
will increase with a lengthened growing season  and a longer frost-free period. 
Tourism may become more popular on the beaches  of the North Sea and the Baltic 
as the Mediterranean becomes too hot, and deaths  and diseases related to 
winter cold will fall.  
But the negative effects will far outweigh the  advantages. Take tourism. The 
report says "the zone with excellent weather  conditions, currently located 
around the Mediterranean (in particular for beach  tourism) will shift towards 
the north". And it spells out the consequences.  
"The annual migration of northern Europeans to the  countries of the 
Mediterranean in search of the traditional summer 'sun, sand  and sea' holiday is the 
single largest flow of tourists across the globe,  accounting for one-sixth of 
all tourist trips in 2000. This large group of  tourists, totalling about 100 
million per annum, spends an estimated €100bn  (£67bn) per year. Any 
climate-induced change in these flows of tourists and  money would have very large 
implications for the destinations involved."  
While they are losing their tourists, the countries  of the Med may also be 
losing their agriculture. Crop yields may drop sharply as  drought conditions, 
exacerbated by more frequent forest fires, make farming ever  more difficult. 
And that is not the only threat to Europe's food supplies. Some  stocks of 
coldwater fish in areas such as the North Sea will move northwards as  the water 
warms.  
There are many more direct threats, the report says.  The cost of taking 
action to cope with sea-level rise will run into billions of  euros. Furthermore, 
"for the coming decades, it is predicted the magnitude and  frequency of 
extreme weather events will increase, and floods will likely be  more frequent and 
severe in many areas across Europe."  
The number of people affected by severe flooding in  the Upper Danube area is 
projected to increase by 242,000 in a more extreme 3C  temperature rise 
scenario, and by 135,000 in the case of a 2.2C rise. The total  cost of damage 
would rise from €47.5bn to €66bn in the event of a 3C increase.  
Although fewer people would die of cold in the north,  that would be more 
than offset by increased mortality in the south. Under the  more extreme scenario 
of a 3C increase in 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990, there  would be 86,000 
additional deaths.  
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Gay  Nicholson, Ph.D. 

607-533-7312 (home office)
607-279-6618  (cell)

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Lansing, NY  14882
gaynicholson at aol.com

Sustainable Tompkins 
Program  Coordinator 
w_ww.sustainabletompkins.org_ (http://www.sustainabletompkins.org/) 

Southern Tier Energy$mart Communities
Regional  Coordinator
Cornell Cooperative Extension of Tompkins County
615 Willow  Ave., Ithaca, NY 14850
agn1 at cornell.edu